We know that the sun produces light, and the Earth orbits around the sun because of gravity.īut how do we know that we know something? We know that we know something by validating it or gathering evidence - if something cannot be proven or has no evidence, it is not a known fact. These could be laws, laws of physics, first principles, or simple, basic facts backed by evidence. Known-Knowns are the straight facts - the truth. What is known to me might not be known to you in various ways. One important aspect of the matrix is that it is driven by perspective and experience.

Unknown-Unknowns: Information or knowledge gaps or risks that we are unaware of.

Unknown-Knowns: Information or knowledge that we are unaware of or are biased towards, also known as tacit or biased knowledge.

Known-Unknowns: Information/knowledge gaps or risks that we are aware of.

Known-Knowns: Information or knowledge that we are aware of and have evidence for.

The value of the Known-Unknown Matrix is the process by which a decision-maker defines and categorizes the relevant information to the problem or situation into four discrete categories:

The Known-Unknown Matrix originates in the Johari Window, a psychological model to help individuals improve their self-awareness, also known as the feedback/disclosure model of self-awareness. In his professional memoirs, aptly named Known and Unknown: A Memoir, Rumsfeld states that he first heard the Known-Unknown phrase from NASA director William Graham when they served together on the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat in the late 1990s. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld explained his thinking as he evaded questions about the lack of evidence of the Iraqi government with the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups. The Known-Unknown Matrix became widely known through an infamous February 2002 press conference in which former U.S. It's a tool for sharpening thinking by categorizing and defining a decision maker's knowledge about a given situation-helping separate fact from fiction and the concrete from the abstract. This seemingly simple 2x2 matrix with Known and Unknown on each axis is not an end or a formulaic deliverable in strategic decision-making but a starting point. One framework that has been utilized for decades by US intelligence agencies, the Department of Defense, and NASA to help answer this difficult question is the Known-Unknown Matrix. Typically, at the heart of any strategy decision is a simple but difficult question that boils down to: 'What should we do and why?' Answering this question is challenging-especially in a highly uncertain, dynamic, or ambiguous environment.

The unknown known